Executive Summary
Brexit has reshaped the global economic landscape, compelling the United Kingdom (UK) to redefine its external trade and investment relations. Africa, with its rapidly growing economies, youthful population, and abundant natural resources, has emerged as a key region of strategic interest for the UK. The withdrawal from the European Union (EU) has created new opportunities, challenges, and uncertainties for both sides. African countries now engage with the UK on a bilateral basis or through new trade mechanisms such as the UK’s Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), while the UK seeks to strengthen influence through investment, development assistance, and trade diplomacy.
This project aims to conduct a comprehensive research and policy analysis on Post-Brexit Economic Relations Between the UK and African Countries, examining trade flows, investment trends, market access changes, regulatory shifts, development cooperation, and geopolitical implications. The research will offer evidence-based recommendations for building mutually beneficial economic partnerships that support Africa’s development priorities while advancing the UK’s post-Brexit global strategy. The project will involve extensive data collection, stakeholder interviews, comparative case studies, expert policy dialogues, and dissemination through reports, workshops, and policy briefs.
Problem Statement
Brexit altered the existing institutional and regulatory frameworks governing trade between the UK and African countries. Before Brexit, most African nations interacted with the UK under EU trade policies such as the Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme, Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), and EPAs. The UK’s departure from the EU ended these shared mechanisms, compelling African countries to negotiate individual agreements or join the UK’s new Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS).
However, this transition has generated challenges, including:
- Regulatory uncertainty in customs procedures
- Loss of preferential access for some African exports
- Inconsistent tariff arrangements
- Reduction of development aid due to the UK’s budget cuts
- Fragmented negotiations between the UK and African regional blocs
- Increased global competition in African markets (e.g., China, EU, India, Turkey)
At the same time, Brexit has also opened opportunities:
- Flexibility for the UK to negotiate country-specific trade deals
- Possibility for African nations to diversify partners
- New UK investments in renewable energy, health, agriculture, and digital economies
- Growing engagement through the UK-Africa Investment Summit
Despite these realities, little comprehensive research exists that assesses how Brexit has affected African trade, investment, and development cooperation. Policymakers, businesses, and development partners in Africa lack evidence-based insights needed to navigate and optimize economic relations with the UK. This project addresses this critical knowledge gap.
Goal and Objectives
Goal
To analyze the evolving economic relationship between the UK and African countries after Brexit and to propose strategies for strengthening trade, investment, and development cooperation.
Objectives
- Assess post-Brexit changes in trade flows, tariffs, and market access for African exports.
- Examine UK investment trends in key African sectors, including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, technology, and services.
- Analyze new trade policies such as the UK DCTS and their implications for African economies.
- Conduct comparative case studies from different African regions (East, West, Southern Africa).
- Engage policymakers, private sector actors, and development organizations to gather insights.
- Provide actionable policy recommendations for strengthening economic cooperation.
- Disseminate findings through reports, workshops, and a final conference.
Project Approach
This project will use a combination of economic analysis, policy research, and stakeholder engagement, including:
- Quantitative Economic Analysis
- Assess trade data from UNCTAD, World Bank, UK Trade Observatory, IMF, and AU databases.
- Examine shifts in export/import volumes, tariffs, and foreign direct investment (FDI).
- Qualitative Research
- Interviews with exporters, policymakers, trade experts, and UK-based diaspora businesses.
- Case studies capturing real-world implications of post-Brexit trade reforms.
- Comparative Regional Assessment
- East Africa: Kenya, Tanzania
- West Africa: Ghana, Nigeria
- Southern Africa: South Africa, Botswana
- Policy Lens
- Analyze how UK’s DCTS, EPAs, and bilateral deals support or hinder African development targets such as AfCFTA, industrialization, and value addition.
- Stakeholder Engagement
- Organize policy dialogues to validate findings.
- Work with chambers of commerce, embassies, and trade associations.
Project Activities
- Baseline Study and Literature Review
- Review Brexit-related policy documents, trade agreements, and global economic reports.
- Trade Data Collection and Analysis
- Map shifts in African export categories: horticulture, textiles, minerals, processed foods, etc.
- Interviews and Stakeholder Consultations
- Engage government ministries, exporters, UK businesses, diaspora entrepreneurs.
- Regional Comparative Case Studies
- Analyze region-specific outcomes of UK-Africa trade relations post-Brexit.
- Policy Workshops and Roundtable Dialogues
- Present preliminary findings to experts and incorporate feedback.
- Report Writing and Publication
- Prepare a comprehensive research report, policy briefs, infographics, and digital content.
- Final Conference
- Invite policymakers, private sector actors, and academic institutions to discuss results and recommendations.
Implementation Plan
- Months 1–2 – Project Setup & Baseline Research
- Team recruitment
- Literature review
- Initial stakeholder mapping
- Months 3–5 – Data Collection & Interviews
- Quantitative trade data analysis
- Field consultations
- Diaspora business interviews
- Months 4–7 – Comparative Case Studies
- Regional analysis
- Drafting case study reports
- Months 6–9 – Policy Engagement
- Workshops with policymakers, business leaders, and trade associations
- Months 8–10 – Reporting and Publications
- Final research report
- Policy briefs
- Months 10–11 – Dissemination
- Media outreach
- Digital platform updates
- Month 12 – Final Conference and Project Closure
- Stakeholder presentation
- Handover of research outputs
Monitoring and Evaluation
- Monitoring
- Monthly team meetings
- Progress tracking sheets for data collection
- Stakeholder feedback after each workshop
- Mid-term project review
- Evaluation
- Endline evaluation of research quality
- Assessment of stakeholder engagement effectiveness
- Measurement of how recommendations influence policy discussions
- Indicators
- Number of experts interviewed
- Number of case studies completed
- Number of workshops conducted
- Quality of published report
- Policymaker feedback
Budget Summary
- Personnel & Research Staff $XXXXX
- Trade Data Collection & Analysis $XXXXX
- Field Visits & Stakeholder Consultations $XXXXX
- Comparative Case Studies $XXXX
- Workshops & Policy Dialogues $XXXX
- Communications & Outreach $XXXX
- Report Writing & Publications $XXXX
- Final Conference $XXXX
- Administrative Costs $XXXX
- Contingency (10%) $XXXX
- Total Estimated Budget: $XXXXX
Sustainability Plan
- Partnership Development
- Long-term collaboration with UK and African trade institutions.
- Engagement with chambers of commerce for ongoing support.
- Knowledge Transfer
- Digital Repository
- A dedicated online platform will store datasets, analysis tools, and policy documents.
- Stakeholder Ownership
- Governments and private-sector partners will use findings to guide negotiations, investments, and bilateral agreements.
- Institutional Strengthening
- African institutions will gain new evidence-based tools for shaping trade policy.
Conclusion
The post-Brexit era presents both opportunities and challenges for the economic relationship between the UK and African countries. With shifting regulatory frameworks, new trade deals, and changing global alliances, the need for detailed, evidence-based analysis has become urgent. This project will bridge critical knowledge gaps, support policymakers, guide businesses, and foster stronger UK-Africa economic ties grounded in mutual benefit and sustainable development. By examining post-Brexit trade dynamics through a comprehensive and comparative approach, the project will contribute to stronger economic partnerships, improved market access, and enhanced development cooperation. Ultimately, the research will support African countries in leveraging Brexit-era opportunities while navigating emerging risks—promoting resilience, competitiveness, and shared prosperity.


