Executive Summary
Brexit—the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union—has significantly reshaped its international trade landscape. This change has profound implications for the UK’s trade relations with African regions, including countries in East Africa, West Africa, Southern Africa, and North Africa. Historically, the UK conducted trade with African nations primarily through EU trade agreements such as the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), which facilitated preferential market access. Following Brexit, the UK must renegotiate bilateral agreements, establish new trade frameworks, and redefine its role in Africa’s economic development.
The goal of this study is to examine the historical trade links between the UK and African regions, the effects of Brexit on trade policies and agreements, and the potential opportunities and challenges emerging from the new post-Brexit environment. The project will involve a combination of desk research, policy analysis, stakeholder interviews, and case studies of selected African countries.
The study will explore sectors most affected by Brexit, including agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services, and identify mechanisms for enhancing trade cooperation in the post-Brexit era. Expected outcomes include a detailed report, policy recommendations for both the UK and African policymakers, and strategic insights for businesses seeking to navigate new trade regimes.
Problem Statement
Brexit has created both uncertainty and opportunity for UK-African trade relations. During its EU membership, the UK participated in EU-negotiated trade agreements, such as EPAs with African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries. These agreements provided preferential market access, tariff exemptions, and trade facilitation measures. With Brexit, the UK no longer benefits automatically from these EU agreements, requiring the negotiation of bilateral trade arrangements with African nations.
African countries face challenges as well. Many rely on exports of raw materials, agricultural products, and manufactured goods to the UK and Europe. Brexit disrupts established trade flows, introduces new tariffs and regulatory requirements, and may impact the competitiveness of African exports. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in both regions are particularly vulnerable due to limited capacity to adapt to new customs procedures and standards.
Additionally, Brexit coincides with other global economic challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic recovery, fluctuating commodity prices, and global supply chain disruptions. Without clear trade policies and support mechanisms, the economic linkages between the UK and African regions risk weakening, reducing trade volumes, investment, and economic growth.
Goal and Objectives
Overall Goal
To assess the implications of Brexit on UK-African trade relations and provide actionable policy recommendations to strengthen bilateral trade and economic cooperation.
Specific Objectives
- Analyze the historical trade relations between the UK and African regions prior to Brexit.
- Examine post-Brexit trade policies, including the UK’s new trade agreements with African countries.
- Identify sectors most affected by Brexit and evaluate the potential economic impact on both regions.
- Assess challenges faced by African exporters and UK businesses in adapting to new trade regulations.
- Develop policy and strategic recommendations to enhance trade cooperation and economic development.
Target Beneficiaries
Policymakers and government agencies – Gain insights to design effective trade policies and bilateral agreements.
Business associations, exporters, and SMEs – Receive guidance on navigating post-Brexit trade regulations, tariffs, and market opportunities.
Researchers and academic institutions – Access comprehensive data, analysis, and case studies on trade patterns and economic impacts.
Local communities and industries – Understand changing trade dynamics and strategies to maintain competitiveness.
International development organizations and trade advocates – Use findings to support programs promoting economic growth, sustainable trade, and cross-regional cooperation.
Project Approach
The project will use a multi-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative research:
- Desk Research: Analyze existing literature, trade reports, government policy documents, and international trade statistics.
- Policy Analysis: Examine the UK’s post-Brexit trade policies and newly negotiated bilateral trade agreements with African countries.
- Case Studies: Select key African countries representing different regions (e.g., Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa) to analyze sector-specific impacts.
- Stakeholder Interviews: Engage with policymakers, trade experts, business associations, exporters, and UK-based companies to collect insights and identify practical challenges.
- Comparative Analysis: Compare trade performance before and after Brexit to understand shifts in trade flows, tariff structures, and investment patterns.
Project Activities
- Literature Review: Collect data on historical UK-African trade relations, including export/import volumes, sectors, and existing trade agreements.
- Policy Mapping: Review the UK’s post-Brexit trade agreements and regulations affecting African trade.
- Data Collection: Gather quantitative trade data from national statistics offices, customs authorities, and international trade databases.
- Case Studies: Conduct in-depth analyses of selected African countries focusing on key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
- Stakeholder Engagement: Conduct interviews and focus groups with exporters, trade associations, and government officials to understand challenges and opportunities.
- Analysis and Reporting: Synthesize findings, identify sectoral trends, and evaluate economic impacts.
- Recommendations and Dissemination: Develop practical policy and business recommendations; organize workshops and webinars to share findings.
Implementation Plan
Months 1–2: Establish project team, finalize methodology, and identify key stakeholders.
Months 3–4: Conduct literature review and collect historical trade data.
Months 5–7: Conduct policy analysis and review post-Brexit trade agreements.
Months 6–8: Conduct case studies of selected African countries.
Months 8–9: Stakeholder interviews and focus groups.
Months 9–10: Analyze data and draft preliminary findings.
Months 11: Prepare final report and policy recommendations.
Month 12: Dissemination through workshops, webinars, and publications.
Expected Outcomes
- Comprehensive report detailing the implications of Brexit on UK-African trade relations.
- Policy recommendations for both the UK and African governments to strengthen trade cooperation.
- Sector-specific insights for exporters, SMEs, and investors.
- Workshops and webinars to share findings with stakeholders.
- Enhanced understanding among policymakers and businesses of post-Brexit trade challenges and opportunities.
Monitoring and Evaluation
- Monitoring
- Monthly progress reports from the research team.
- Regular updates on data collection and stakeholder engagement.
- Tracking participation in interviews, focus groups, and workshops.
- Evaluation
- Mid-term evaluation to assess progress against objectives.
- Final evaluation assessing quality of outputs, usefulness of recommendations, and stakeholder satisfaction.
- Indicators:
- Number of trade agreements analyzed
- Number of case studies completed
- Number of stakeholders engaged
- Publication and dissemination of reports
- Policy uptake and engagement with recommendations
Budget Summary
Personnel (Project Manager, Trade Analysts, Research Assistants) $XXXXX
Policy & Trade Data Collection $XXXX
Field Visits and Stakeholder Consultations $XXXX
Workshops and Stakeholder Engagement Sessions $XXXX
Economic Impact Analysis & Modeling $XXXX
Report Writing, Editing, and Publication $XXXX
Communications, Media Outreach, and Dissemination $XXXX
Final Conference & Policy Roundtable $XXXX
Administrative Costs (Office, Supplies, Logistics) $XXXX
Contingency (10%) $XXXX
Total Estimated Budget – $XXXXX
Sustainability Plan
- Capacity Building: Train local trade experts and business associations to continue monitoring trade relations.
- Digital Repository: Maintain a repository of data, case studies, and policy briefs for ongoing reference.
- Policy Integration: Encourage governments to incorporate recommendations into national trade strategies.
- Partnerships: Strengthen links between UK and African trade associations for sustained collaboration.
- Knowledge Dissemination: Publish findings in journals, policy briefs, and online platforms to ensure long-term access.
Conclusion
Brexit has transformed the trade landscape between the UK and African regions, creating both challenges and opportunities. While new regulatory frameworks, tariffs, and the loss of EU preferential access pose risks, bilateral trade agreements and strategic collaboration can help mitigate negative impacts. This project seeks to provide evidence-based analysis, actionable policy recommendations, and sector-specific insights to enable African countries and UK businesses to navigate the post-Brexit environment successfully. By understanding the historical trade context, evaluating new policy frameworks, and engaging stakeholders, this project will strengthen UK-African trade relations, promote sustainable economic development, and foster long-term cooperation. The findings will support governments, businesses, and researchers in building resilient trade strategies in the changing global economy.


